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The over/under formula is a key concept in basketball betting, specifically when it comes to calculating totals. Understanding this formula is essential for bettors looking to make informed decisions and maximize their chances of success.
The over/under bet is a type of wager where bettors predict whether the total combined score of both teams will be over or under a certain number set by bookmakers. This betting option adds excitement to the game, as it allows bettors to cheer for both teams to score or for a low-scoring defensive battle.
The over/under line is determined by sportsbooks based on a variety of factors including team performance, player statistics, and historical data. Bookmakers analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the teams, the playing style, and other factors when setting the line.
To calculate over/under totals, there are several steps to follow. First, gather relevant data such as team statistics, recent performance, and player injury updates. Next, analyze the team statistics including offensive and defensive efficiency to assess scoring potential. Consider external factors such as the pace of the game and potential injuries that may impact the final score.
There are several factors that can influence over/under outcomes. Team offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as the pace of the game, play a significant role in determining scoring potential. staying updated on injury news is crucial as it can impact a team’s ability to score or defend effectively.
Advanced analytics are valuable tools for over/under betting. Metrics such as effective field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, rebound rate, and pace factor provide deeper insights into team performance and scoring potential.
To maximize success in over/under betting, it is important to employ effective strategies. Fading public opinion, monitoring line movements, and understanding game flow can significantly impact betting outcomes.
Risk management and bankroll strategies are crucial in maintaining a sustainable betting approach. Proper bankroll management and determining appropriate unit sizes are essential to minimize losses and maximize profits.
By understanding and applying the over/under formula, analyzing relevant factors, utilizing advanced analytics, and implementing effective strategies, bettors can improve their chances of success in basketball totals betting.
Understanding the Over/Under Formula
Understanding the Over/Under Formula is essential when it comes to predicting the combined score in sports betting. To accurately calculate the over/under, one must take into account various factors such as offensive and defensive capabilities, historical scoring trends, injuries, and weather conditions. It is crucial to analyze the average points scored and allowed by each team in previous games to assess their overall scoring ability.
Staying updated with the latest news and developments that may impact a team’s scoring potential is vital. By researching and analyzing team statistics and trends before placing bets, one can make well-informed decisions. Keeping a record of predictions and comparing them to the actual outcomes can help track accuracy and improve future bets.
In outdoor sports, weather conditions play a significant role in scoring. Extreme temperatures or strong winds can affect the game, and therefore, should be taken into consideration. Any recent changes in team dynamics or strategies that can influence scoring potential must also be evaluated.
By collecting and analyzing relevant data, one can make informed predictions on the total score. It is important to compare these predictions to the over/under line set by bookmakers to determine whether the actual score will be higher (over) or lower (under) than the predicted line. Through thorough analysis and understanding of the over/under formula, making accurate decisions in basketball totals betting becomes achievable.
What is the Over/Under Bet?
The Over/Under bet, also known as the Over/Under wager, is a popular type of bet in basketball. It allows bettors to predict whether the total number of points scored in a game will be over or under a specific number set by the sportsbook. This betting option adds excitement to the game, enabling fans to cheer for both teams to score more or fewer points.
To place an Over/Under bet, it is important to comprehend the line established by the sportsbook. For example, if the line is set at 220 points, and you believe that the teams will collectively score more than 220 points, you would place a bet on the Over. In contrast, if you anticipate the total to be less than 220 points, you would opt for the Under bet.
Several factors can affect the outcome of an Over/Under bet. These include the offensive and defensive efficiency of the teams, the pace of the game, and injury updates. Analyzing team statistics such as effective field goal percentage and rebound rate can also provide useful insights when making a decision.
In a real-life scenario, John, a passionate basketball fan, decided to place an Over/Under bet on a game featuring two high-scoring teams. The sportsbook had set the line at 230 points, and John was confident that the teams would continue their scoring streak. He placed a bet on the Over and eagerly followed the game. As it turned out, both teams performed exceptionally well, resulting in a final score of 255 points. John’s accurate prediction led him to win his bet and celebrate his successful wager. This story serves as a testament to the excitement and potential rewards that the Over/Under bet can bring to basketball fans.
How is the Over/Under Line Determined?
The determination of the Over/Under line in basketball betting involves careful analysis by oddsmakers. These experts examine team statistics such as offensive and defensive efficiency, as well as the pace of the game. They also take into account external factors like injury updates.
Leveraging advanced analytics, oddsmakers can more accurately estimate the total points that will be scored. They continuously monitor line movements and game flow, making necessary adjustments to the Over/Under line.
It is vital to understand that the Over/Under line is not a prediction of the actual score, but rather a projection of the combined points scored. It can be influenced by various factors such as team matchups and recent performance.
One should note that the Over/Under line can change based on public betting trends and new information. Therefore, it is crucial for bettors to stay updated and make informed decisions.
Get ready to crunch the numbers and analyze the stats because calculating Over/Under totals is about to take you to a whole new level of basketball betting brilliance.
Calculating Over/Under Totals
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Looking to master the art of calculating over/under totals in basketball betting? Look no further as we dive into the nitty-gritty details of this section. We’ll start by gathering relevant data, followed by a deep analysis of team statistics. But that’s not all – we’ll also consider external factors that can sway the outcome. Get ready to unlock the secrets behind successful totals betting in basketball!
Step 1: Gathering Relevant Data
Step 1: Gathering Relevant Data is crucial for calculating Over/Under totals in basketball betting.
1. Collect team and player statistics: Gather relevant data on both teams involved, including scoring averages, shooting percentages, rebounding rates, and other key performance indicators.
2. Review recent team performance: Analyze the teams’ performance in their recent games, considering factors such as the average points scored and allowed, and compare them to the Over/Under line set by bookmakers.
3. Assess head-to-head matchups: Examine previous matchups between the teams to identify patterns and tendencies, looking for common trends in scoring outputs and changes in playing style or personnel.
4. Consider home and away factors: Home court advantage can influence scoring outcomes, so gather data on how teams perform at home compared to on the road to better understand how the game might unfold.
5. Take into account injuries and lineup changes: Keep track of any updates on player availability and consider how injuries and lineup changes might affect the overall scoring potential of the game.
Get ready to dive deep into team statistics – it’s like Sherlock Holmes meets basketball!
Step 2: Analyzing Team Statistics
To effectively analyze team statistics for basketball over/under betting, follow a systematic approach. Here are the steps:
- Assess scoring averages: Look at each team’s average points scored and allowed per game. This gives an idea of their offensive and defensive capabilities.
- Analyze team statistics: Evaluate the team’s field goal percentage, three-point percentage, and free throw percentage. A team with a high shooting percentage is likely to score more points.
- Analyze rebounding: Consider the team’s rebounding performance, including offensive and defensive rebounding rates. A team with strong rebounding skills can control the game’s pace and create scoring opportunities.
- Study assist and turnover rates: Look at the team’s assist-to-turnover ratio, which shows their ability to create scoring opportunities while minimizing turnovers. A team with strong passing and ball-handling skills is likely to have a higher-scoring game.
- Consider pace of play: Take into account the team’s pace factor, which measures how fast or slow they play. Teams with a high pace factor tend to score more points, while teams with a low pace factor may have lower-scoring games.
By analyzing these team statistics, valuable insights into the potential outcome of an over/under bet in basketball can be gained.
Step 3: Considering External Factors
When it comes to calculating Over/Under totals in basketball betting, Step 3 is crucial. This step involves carefully considering external factors that can have a significant impact on the outcome of the game. These factors play a key role in determining whether the final score will go over or under the set line.
There are several important external factors that should be taken into account:
- Injury updates: The availability and condition of key players can have a major influence on a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency, which in turn affects the total points scored in the game.
- Weather conditions: Outdoor games can be affected by various weather elements such as rain, wind, or extreme temperatures. These conditions can impact shooting percentages and the overall pace of the game.
- Venue factors: Home court advantage, crowd noise, and unique court dimensions can all have an impact on team performance and scoring tendencies. These factors ultimately affect the total points scored in the game.
- Fatigue and scheduling: The number of games played within a certain time period and the demands of travel can significantly impact a team’s energy levels. This can potentially affect their scoring output.
- Referee tendencies: The style and tendencies of the referees can influence the number of fouls called, which in turn affects the scoring opportunities for the teams.
Considering these external factors is essential for making accurate predictions. To illustrate this, let’s take an example from the NBA. In a recent game, the injury to a star player led to a significant decrease in offensive production for his team. As a result, the final score went well under the set line. This unexpected outcome surprised many bettors who had not taken into account the impact of this specific external factor.
The only thing that can bring a basketball game to a screeching halt faster than a knee injury is a low-scoring affair.
Factors Affecting Over/Under Outcomes
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When it comes to predicting totals in basketball betting, understanding the factors that influence over/under outcomes is crucial. In this section, we’ll dive into key elements that can sway the final score. From a team’s offensive and defensive efficiency to the pace of the game, each factor plays a role in shaping the final point tally. And let’s not forget about the impact of injuries on over/under results. So, buckle up, as we explore the intricate web of factors that can determine the outcome of your totals bets.
Team Offensive Efficiency
To evaluate a team’s offensive efficiency in basketball, various statistics can be analyzed. The table below showcases key metrics that contribute to team offensive efficiency.
| Statistic | Description |
| Points Per Game | Average number of points scored per game |
| Field Goal Percentage | Ratio of successful field goals made to total attempts |
| Three-Point Percentage | Ratio of successful three-point shots made to total attempts |
| Free Throw Percentage | Ratio of successful free throws made to total attempts |
| Assists Per Game | Average number of assists recorded per game |
| Turnovers Per Game | Average number of turnovers committed per game |
These statistics provide insights into a team’s scoring ability, shooting accuracy, and ball-handling skills. A team with high points per game, efficient field goal and three-point percentages, and a low turnover rate is likely to have strong offensive efficiency. Conversely, a team with low shooting percentages and a high turnover rate may struggle to score efficiently.
When assessing team offensive efficiency, it is essential to consider not only the individual statistics but also the team dynamics, play style, and coaching strategies. Analyzing performance against different opponents and under varying circumstances can provide a comprehensive understanding of a team’s offensive capabilities.
By evaluating team offensive efficiency, bettors can make informed decisions when it comes to over/under betting in basketball. Understanding a team’s scoring potential and offensive strengths can contribute to more accurate predictions of total points scored in a game.
Team defense wins championships, but it can also win you some sweet over/under bets.
Team Defensive Efficiency
Team defensive efficiency is crucial when analyzing basketball games. It measures a team’s ability to prevent opponents from scoring and involves various statistical categories. The table above displays the data for a specific team’s defensive performance.
One important factor to examine is points allowed per game, which is 107.2 in this case. This reveals how effectively the team limits opponents’ scoring opportunities. The opponent’s field goal percentage of 44.6% indicates how often the opposing team successfully makes shots against the defense. The opponent’s three-point percentage, at 37.2%, demonstrates the team’s ability to defend the perimeter.
Furthermore, steals and blocks per game show the team’s capability to disrupt the opponent’s offense and prevent easy scoring opportunities. In this case, the team averages 8.5 steals and 4.2 blocks per game.
Understanding a team’s defensive efficiency allows bettors to make more informed decisions when placing wagers on the total points scored in a game. By considering these defensive statistics along with other factors affecting the game, such as the pace of play and offensive efficiency, bettors can assess whether the final score is likely to be higher or lower than the given over/under line.
In a similar vein, a true story showcases the significance of team defensive efficiency. In a crucial playoff match, Team A exhibited exceptional defense, holding their opponent to a season-low point total. This exceptional performance reflected their solid defensive strategy and execution. As a result, Team A’s defensive efficiency played a critical role in their victory and subsequent advancement in the tournament.
Pace of the Game: The only time moving slowly is a good thing in basketball is when you’re a sloth mascot trying to distract the opposing team.
Pace of the Game
When it comes to basketball over/under betting, the pace of the game is of utmost importance. It refers to the speed at which teams play, including their possessions and playstyle tempo. A high-paced game provides more scoring opportunities and increases the likelihood of exceeding the over/under line, while a slow-paced game results in lower scores.
To properly analyze the pace, it is crucial to examine statistics such as team possessions per game, shot clock usage, and fast break opportunities. Teams that play at a fast pace are more inclined to have high-scoring games, ultimately affecting the outcome of the over/under bet.
External factors should also be taken into consideration, as they can significantly impact the pace. For instance, injuries or changes in the lineup may slow down a team’s pace. A team with strong depth and fast bench players can maintain a high pace even in the presence of injuries.
When making predictions for over/under outcomes, it is essential to assess the pace and how it aligns with the teams involved. This can be achieved by analyzing team statistics and considering external factors, enabling you to make an informed decision.
To increase your chances of success, it is advisable to monitor line movements and comprehend how game flow influences the pace. It is equally important to manage risks effectively and determine appropriate unit sizes in order to maintain a healthy bankroll.
By incorporating the pace of the game into your over/under betting strategy, you can enhance the profitability of your decisions.
Injury Updates
When placing bets on basketball over/under, it is crucial to stay informed about injury updates. Incorporating injury information into your analysis can help you make more informed betting decisions. Here are some important factors to consider:
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Impact of key player injuries: Injuries to star players or key contributors can have a significant effect on a team’s performance and scoring ability. It is essential to keep track of their injury status to understand how it may influence the game.
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Anticipating return dates: Knowing when injured players are expected to return can give you insights into their potential impact on the overall scoring of the game. Stay updated on projected return dates to make more accurate predictions.
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Team dynamics: Injuries can cause shifts in team chemistry and rotations. Consider how the absence or return of a player can affect the team’s offensive and defensive strategies, as well as their overall performance. Understanding these dynamics can provide valuable information for your betting analysis.
While injury updates are vital, it is important to combine them with other factors such as team statistics, game pace, and advanced analytics. This comprehensive approach will increase your chances of success in over/under betting.
Pro-tip: Do not solely rely on injury updates. Factor in other relevant aspects to gain a comprehensive view of the game and enhance your chances of success in over/under betting.
Using Advanced Analytics for Over/Under Betting
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Discover the power of advanced analytics when it comes to over/under betting in basketball. Unleash the potential of effective field goal percentage, true shooting percentage, rebound rate, pace factor, and more. From monitoring line movements to understanding the game flow, these sub-sections will equip you with the insights you need to make well-informed betting decisions. So, get ready to dive into the world of advanced analytics and elevate your over/under betting strategies.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
The effective field goal percentage is a crucial statistic for analyzing basketball games. It considers the value of different types of field goals, giving more weight to three-pointers. This percentage accurately represents a team’s shooting efficiency. A higher effective field goal percentage indicates efficient scoring, with more shots made and opportunities utilized effectively. Conversely, a lower effective field goal percentage suggests struggling to score efficiently, with many missed shots or wasted scoring chances.
To calculate the effective field goal percentage, divide the total points scored by a team on field goal attempts, including three-pointers, by the total number of field goal attempts. Teams with players who have high individual effective field goal percentages tend to be more successful in scoring and have an edge in games. The effective field goal percentage is a valuable tool for predicting the outcome of high-scoring or low-scoring games when analyzing over/under betting. Teams with higher effective field goal percentages are more likely to contribute to higher-scoring games.
True Shooting Percentage
The True Shooting Percentage (TS%) is a basketball statistic that measures a player’s shooting efficiency by considering two-point field goals, three-point field goals, and free throws. It provides a more accurate representation of a player’s scoring ability than traditional field goal percentage.
Table showcasing the calculation of True Shooting Percentage for a hypothetical player in a basketball game:
| Player Name | 2P FG | 3P FG | FT | PTS | FGA | FTA | TS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Doe | 6 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 75.0% |
To calculate True Shooting Percentage, we use the formula: TS% = PTS / (2 * (FGA + (0.44 * FTA))).
In the example, John Doe scored 24 points, made 6 two-point field goals, 2 three-point field goals, and 4 free throws. He attempted 12 field goals and 5 free throws. Using the formula, his True Shooting Percentage is 75.0%.
True Shooting Percentage is important as it provides a comprehensive picture of a player’s shooting efficiency, considering both field goals and free throws. It is valuable for evaluating a player’s scoring contributions and making informed decisions about strategy and lineup changes. NBA player Stephen Curry is known for his exceptional shooting skills and consistently maintaining a high True Shooting Percentage throughout his career. His ability to efficiently score from all areas of the court has made him one of the most dangerous offensive threats in the game.
Rebound Rate: Because when it comes to grabbing boards, these teams are more relentless than a cat trying to catch a laser pointer.
Rebound Rate
When analyzing basketball games for over/under betting, one important factor to consider is the rebound rate. The rebound rate, which refers to the percentage of missed shots that a team secures through offensive or defensive rebounding, plays a crucial role in determining the game’s outcome. By incorporating the rebound rate into their analysis, bettors can gain valuable insights into a team’s ability to gain possession of the ball. This can result in more scoring opportunities or prevent the opponent from scoring.
Understanding the importance of the rebound rate is essential for assessing a team’s performance. A high rebound rate can control the game’s pace and generate second-chance points, ultimately boosting overall scoring potential. By assessing a team’s rebound rate, bettors can gain a better understanding of their efficiency in gathering missed shots. This knowledge can help them make more informed decisions when placing over/under bets.
It is not just the team’s rebound rate that needs to be considered. Individual player impact also plays a significant role in determining a team’s rebound rate. Analyzing the rebounding abilities of key players can provide valuable insights into a team’s advantage in this aspect of the game.
In addition to considering individual team’s rebound rates, it is also important to evaluate the rebound rates of opposing teams. By comparing and contrasting the rebound rates of both teams involved in a game, bettors can better predict the game’s overall pace and scoring potential.
It is worth noting that there is a strong correlation between rebound rate and scores. A higher rebound rate often leads to more possessions, which in turn increases scoring opportunities.
Pace Factor
The pace factor in basketball, also known as the number of possessions each team has in a game, is a crucial variable in determining scoring outcomes. This factor plays a significant role in calculating the over/under totals for betting purposes.
To calculate the pace factor, simply divide the total number of possessions in a game by the number of minutes played. Possessions are influenced by various factors, including field goals attempted, free throws attempted, turnovers, and offensive rebounds.
To comprehend the impact of the pace factor on over/under outcomes, it is essential to analyze historical data and identify trends. Some teams prefer a fast-paced playing style, resulting in higher scoring games. On the flip side, other teams prioritize defense and opt for a slower pace, leading to lower scoring games.
When analyzing team statistics and making predictions for over/under bets, considering the pace factor is crucial. A higher pace factor indicates a faster game with more scoring opportunities, while a lower pace factor suggests a slower game with fewer chances to score. By taking the pace factor into account, bettors can make well-informed decisions and potentially increase their chances of success.
Keep an eye on line movements like a hawk, because in the world of basketball over/under betting, the odds can swing faster than a Shaq free throw.
Monitoring Line Movements
It is crucial to monitor line movements when it comes to basketball Over/Under betting. This entails keeping an eye on the changes in the betting lines established by bookmakers. By consistently tracking line movements, bettors can gain valuable insights into market trends and adjust their betting strategy accordingly.
For instance, let’s take a look at the following data regarding line movements:
| Date | Opening Line | Closing Line | Line Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1 | 215.5 | 216.5 | +1 |
| Jan 2 | 216.5 | 214.5 | -2 |
| Jan 3 | 214.5 | 212.5 | -2 |
By actively monitoring line movements, you can effectively gauge bettors’ sentiment towards a particular game. If the line moves upwards, it indicates an increasing number of wagers being placed on the Over. Conversely, if the line moves downwards, it suggests a higher volume of bets on the Under.
Keeping a close watch on line movements can assist in identifying patterns or anomalies. A significant line movement may signify important news, such as player injuries or lineup changes. Staying up to date with these developments provides an advantage in predicting game outcomes and adapting your betting strategy accordingly.
To effectively monitor line movements, it is recommended to use reputable sportsbooks that provide real-time updates. Thoroughly analyze the patterns, comprehend the reasons behind the line movements, and carefully consider their impact on the game. Combine this information with other factors that influence Over/Under outcomes to make well-informed betting decisions.
Understanding game flow is crucial for successful over/under betting – it’s like predicting if a basketball game is going to be a slow dance or a full-blown mosh pit.
Understanding Game Flow
Understanding game flow is crucial for basketball over/under betting. It involves analyzing the pace of the game, offensive and defensive efficiency, and injury updates that may impact scoring.
– Pace of the game: The speed of a basketball game significantly affects scoring. A faster-paced game leads to higher scores, while a slower-paced game results in lower scores. Analyzing the average number of possessions per game provides insight into expected scoring output.
– Team offensive efficiency: This refers to a team’s ability to score points. Factors like field goal percentage, three-point shooting percentage, and free throw percentage indicate offensive prowess. A team with high offensive efficiency contributes more to total points scored.
– Team defensive efficiency: The defensive effectiveness of a team also affects scoring output. Teams with strong defensive strategies and the ability to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities lead to lower-scoring games. Analyzing opponent field goal percentage and points allowed per game provides insights into a team’s defensive performance.
– Injury updates: Key players’ presence or absence due to injuries greatly impacts game flow and scoring. Injuries to star players result in lower-scoring games, while their presence boosts scoring potential.
Understanding game flow accurately predicts total points scored in a basketball game and informs over/under betting decisions.
Fact: Various factors, including coaching strategies and player fatigue, influence the pace of a basketball game.
Risk Management and Bankroll Strategies
Discover the key to successful basketball betting: Risk Management and Bankroll Strategies. In this section, we’ll explore two essential aspects that can make or break your betting game. From effective bankroll management to determining appropriate unit sizes, we’ll equip you with the tools to minimize risks and maximize profits. Get ready to take your betting skills to the next level with our expert insights and strategies. Let’s dive in and unlock the secrets to a winning betting approach in basketball.
Bankroll Management
Bankroll Management is of utmost importance when it comes to successful basketball over/under betting. To ensure efficient management of your bankroll, follow the following steps:
1. Establish a budget: Determine the specific amount of money you are ready to wager. This step guarantees that you do not take on more risk than you can afford to lose.
2. Divide your bankroll into unit sizes: Allocate a portion of your bankroll to units, typically falling between 1% and 5% of your overall bankroll. This will determine the amount you bet for each wager.
3. Follow proper staking techniques: Assign varied unit sizes based on your level of confidence. Wager larger units on bets you feel more certain about, and smaller units on riskier bets.
4. Employ a betting strategy: Decide on a consistent approach to betting, such as flat betting (using the same unit size for every wager) or progressive betting (adjusting unit sizes based on previous wins or losses).
5. Maintain emotional control: Avoid the urge to chase losses by placing larger bets in an attempt to recover. Adhere to your predetermined unit sizes and refrain from impulsive decisions.
6. Track and analyze your results: Keep a record of your wagers, including unit size, outcome, and any relevant notes. Regularly review your performance to identify patterns or areas for improvement.
7. Adjust as needed: Reevaluate your unit sizes and budget as your bankroll increases or decreases, ensuring they align with your current circumstances.
By effectively implementing strategies for bankroll management, you can enhance your chances of long-term success in basketball over/under betting.
Determining Unit Sizes
To determine unit sizes for basketball over/under betting, follow these steps:
Step 1: Define your bankroll. Establish the total amount of money you are willing to allocate for betting.
Step 2: Determine your risk tolerance. Assess your comfort level with risk and decide how much of your bankroll you are willing to wager on each bet.
Step 3: Calculate unit size. Divide your bankroll by a predetermined percentage that aligns with your risk tolerance. For example, if your bankroll is $1,000 and you choose to risk 2% per bet, your unit size would be $20.
Step 4: Adjust unit size based on confidence. Consider the strength of your analysis and confidence in a particular bet. If you have higher confidence, you may choose to increase your unit size. If you have doubts, it may be wise to decrease it.
Step 5: Track and review. Keep a record of your bets and their outcomes. Regularly review your performance and make adjustments to your unit size based on your success rate and overall profitability.
By determining appropriate unit sizes, you can effectively manage your bankroll, minimize potential losses, and optimize your chances of long-term success in basketball over/under betting.
